What usually happens after the market drops?
Drops feel like the start of something worse, and selling into them is the most common costly mistake investors make. Thirty years of history shows how often a 5%, 10% or 20% fall turned into more pain, and how often it was the worst of it.
Updated Oct 9, 2026
Usually recovered
The S&P 500 is at a record high. Since 1995 it has first fallen 10% below a high 12 times; a year later it was higher 75% of the time, by a median 15%, and it took a median 6 months to get back to the old high.
A year later, every time
Select a drop size. Each bar is the S&P 500’s change over the year after it first fell that far below a high.
Every 10% drop since 1995
Most recent first. Low is the deepest fall before the next record; months to recover counts from the day of the 10% drop. Select a column to sort.
| Fell 10% | Low | 3 months on | A year on | Months to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | −19% | +9% | +21% | 3 |
| Feb 22, 2022 | −25% | −8% | −7% | 23 |
| Feb 27, 2020 | −34% | +2% | +28% | 6 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | −20% | +2% | +15% | 6 |
| Feb 8, 2018 | −10% | +6% | +5% | 6 |
| Aug 24, 2015 | −14% | +10% | +16% | 11 |
| Jan 8, 2008 | −56% | −2% | −35% | 62 |
| Apr 14, 2000 | −49% | +11% | −12% | 86 |
| Sep 29, 1999 | −12% | +16% | +13% | 2 |
| Aug 14, 1998 | −19% | +6% | +26% | 3 |
| Oct 27, 1997 | −11% | +12% | +23% | 1 |
| Apr 11, 1997 | −10% | +25% | +51% | 1 |
How to read this page
How it’s measured. S&P 500 closing prices since 1995, from the SPY fund. A drop is counted the first time the index closes 5%, 10% or 20% below its record close, and not again until it makes a new record.
Sources. Daily prices from Financial Modeling Prep.
Prices exclude dividends, which would add about two points a year. A handful of episodes, such as 2000 and 2008, account for most of the bad outcomes.
History describes the odds, not the next case; some drops did become long bear markets. In our research, buying individual stocks because they fell has not paid on its own.
This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›