How do stocks do in election years?
Investors often expect politics to move markets, and the four-year presidential cycle is one of Wall Street’s oldest patterns. A long history shows how much, or how little, the calendar has mattered.
Updated Oct 9, 2026
Midterm year: +7.4% on average
2026 is a midterm year. Since 1872, the S&P 500 and its predecessors returned 7.4% on average in midterm years, against 10.9% across all years, the weakest of the four-year cycle. The year that follows has averaged 14.6%. So far this year the index is up 14% before dividends.
The four-year cycle
First, the average return in each year of the presidential term. Select the midterm tile for its average path, month by month.
The last 40 years
Calendar-year total returns with dividends, newest first. This year’s figure is the price change so far. Select a column to sort.
| Year | Term | Return |
|---|---|---|
2026 so far Midterm year | This year | +14% |
2025 Year after the election | Year after the election | +15% |
2024 Presidential election year | Election | +30% |
2023 Year before the election | Year before the election | +22% |
2022 Midterm year | Midterm | −15% |
2021 Year after the election | Year after the election | +28% |
2020 Presidential election year | Election | +18% |
2019 Year before the election | Year before the election | +26% |
2018 Midterm year | Midterm | −2% |
2017 Year after the election | Year after the election | +21% |
2016 Presidential election year | Election | +12% |
2015 Year before the election | Year before the election | +2% |
2014 Midterm year | Midterm | +16% |
2013 Year after the election | Year after the election | +30% |
2012 Presidential election year | Election | +17% |
2011 Year before the election | Year before the election | +2% |
2010 Midterm year | Midterm | +14% |
2009 Year after the election | Year after the election | +30% |
2008 Presidential election year | Election | −39% |
2007 Year before the election | Year before the election | +6% |
2006 Midterm year | Midterm | +14% |
2005 Year after the election | Year after the election | +7% |
2004 Presidential election year | Election | +13% |
2003 Year before the election | Year before the election | +22% |
2002 Midterm year | Midterm | −20% |
2001 Year after the election | Year after the election | −13% |
2000 Presidential election year | Election | −6% |
1999 Year before the election | Year before the election | +22% |
1998 Midterm year | Midterm | +25% |
1997 Year after the election | Year after the election | +32% |
1996 Presidential election year | Election | +24% |
1995 Year before the election | Year before the election | +38% |
1994 Midterm year | Midterm | 0% |
1993 Year after the election | Year after the election | +10% |
1992 Presidential election year | Election | +16% |
1991 Year before the election | Year before the election | +22% |
1990 Midterm year | Midterm | −2% |
1989 Year after the election | Year after the election | +30% |
1988 Presidential election year | Election | +19% |
1987 Year before the election | Year before the election | 0% |
1986 Midterm year | Midterm | +24% |
How to read this page
How it’s measured. Calendar-year total returns, with dividends, for the S&P 500 and the indexes that preceded it, from Robert Shiller’s monthly data since 1871, using December average prices. Years are grouped by their place in the four-year presidential term.
Sources. Robert Shiller’s long-run market data.
Each group holds only about 38 years, and the spread within each is far wider than the gaps between them, so the cycle is a weak guide to any single year.
Returns before 1957 use the indexes Standard & Poor’s and Alfred Cowles built from earlier data.
This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›