How does the market usually do this month?
Calendar patterns are some of the most repeated ideas in investing: sell in May, the year-end rally, a weak September. Thirty years of monthly returns show how much of that holds up, and how wide the range is in any one month.
Updated Oct 9, 2026
Leans up
Since 1995 the S&P 500 has risen in October in 61% of years, by +1.6% on average, the 3rd best month of twelve. From the start of October to the end of December it has gained in 84% of years. This October it is +2.1% so far.
Month by month
Select any month below to see its return in every year since 1995.
Every month since 1995
The share of years each month rose, its average and median change, and its best and worst year. Select a column to sort.
| Month | Years up | Average | Median | Best | Worst | Each year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
January | 58Leans up | +0.6% | +1.5% | +8% (2019) | −8% (2009) | |
February | 53Coin flip | +0.1% | +0.5% | +7% (1998) | −11% (2009) | |
March | 59Leans up | +0.7% | +1.3% | +9% (2000) | −13% (2020) | |
April | 75Usually up | +2.2% | +1.4% | +13% (2020) | −9% (2022) | |
May | 69Leans up | +1.1% | +1.6% | +6% (1997) | −8% (2010) | |
June | 56Leans up | +0.1% | +0.2% | +6% (2019) | −9% (2008) | |
July | 66Leans up | +1.4% | +1.7% | +9% (2022) | −8% (2002) | |
August | 62Leans up | −0.2% | +0.6% | +7% (2020) | −14% (1998) | |
September | 53Coin flip | −0.8% | +0.3% | +8% (2010) | −11% (2002) | |
October This month | 61Leans up | +1.6% | +2.2% | +11% (2011) | −17% (2008) | |
November Next month | 81Usually up | +2.8% | +3.1% | +11% (2020) | −7% (2000) | |
December | 65Leans up | +0.5% | +0.7% | +6% (1998) | −9% (2018) |
How to read this page
How it’s measured. S&P 500 price changes by calendar month since 1995, from the SPY fund. The score for a month is the share of years it rose.
Sources. Daily prices from Financial Modeling Prep.
Returns are price changes without dividends. Thirty years is about thirty observations per month, so a handful of extreme years, like 2008, move the averages a lot.
Seasonal patterns are weak and inconsistent; the spread within any month dwarfs the difference between months. Treat them as context, not a reason to trade.
This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›