What are bond markets saying?
Bond investors price interest rates, default risk and inflation every day, and they often react before the stock market does. Comparing pairs of bond funds turns those prices into plain signals: which way rates are going, whether lenders are nervous, and whether inflation worries are building.
Updated Oct 9, 2026
Risk-on
Over the past three months long Treasuries have trailed short ones by 6.5 points, so long-term rates have been rising. High-yield bonds beat Treasuries by 1.3 points, and inflation-protected bonds beat regular ones by 1.0.
Over time
Select any signal or fund. Score compares the three-month reading with the last five years; Value is the ratio of the two funds.
The four signals
Each row compares two funds. Positive numbers mean the first fund beat the second. Select a column to sort.
| Signal | Reading | 1M | 3M | 1Y | Past year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Long-term rates When long-term bonds beat short ones, long-term interest rates are falling. | 21Rising long rates | −3.2 pts | −6.5 pts | −10.9 pts | |
Credit appetite When high-yield bonds beat Treasuries, lenders are comfortable taking credit risk. | 61Risk appetite | +0.2 pts | +1.3 pts | +3.2 pts | |
Inflation worry When inflation-protected bonds beat regular ones, investors expect more inflation. | 64Rising | +0.2 pts | +1.0 pts | +1.2 pts | |
Stocks vs bonds When stocks beat bonds, investors are leaning toward growth over safety. | 78Stocks favored | +4.8 pts | +8.4 pts | +24.7 pts |
How to read this page
How it’s measured. Each signal compares two funds over three months: long against short Treasuries, high-yield against Treasuries, inflation-protected against regular Treasuries, and stocks against bonds. Scores compare each with its own last five years.
Sources. Daily prices from Financial Modeling Prep.
Comparisons use fund prices. Both funds in each pair pay interest, so the income largely cancels out, but the comparisons are approximate rather than exact yield changes.
In our research, the yield curve has not been a useful short-term signal for stocks. These readings describe what bond investors are pricing now.
This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›