Is inflation cooling?
Inflation decides what the Fed does with interest rates, and rates decide what investors will pay for future profits. Prices that cool toward the Fed’s 2% target open the door to cuts; prices that stay hot or speed up keep rates high and pressure stocks and bonds alike.
Updated Oct 9, 2026
Stuck above target
Core PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose 3.0% over the past year and at a 2.7% annual pace over the last six months, against the Fed’s 2% target. Consumer prices are up 3.7%. Of 20 measures, 5 are cooling and 4 heating up; the fastest-rising is airfares, up 28.9% over the year.
Over time
Select any measure. Score compares the yearly rate with its history since 1985, where 100 is the hottest; Value is the rate itself, with recessions shaded.
All 20 price measures
The headline gauges first, then the parts of the consumer price index. The number in each pill is how hot the yearly rate is against its history; the word is its recent direction. Select a column to sort.
| Measure | Direction | Over a year | Last 6 months, annualized | Last 3 months, annualized | A year ago | Past 3 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Core PCE The Fed’s preferred gauge | 74Steady | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | |
PCE Prices of all consumer spending | 80Steady | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 2.7% | |
CPI Consumer prices | 78Steady | 3.7% | 4.1% | 0.2% | 2.7% | |
Core CPI Consumer prices excluding food and energy | 60Steady | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | |
Producer prices What businesses charge for finished goods and services | 87Steady | 5.4% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | |
Shelter Rent and the cost of owning a home | 62Steady | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | |
Rent Rent of a main home | 37Steady | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | |
Services excluding rent Services other than housing | 49Steady | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 4.0% | |
Core goods Goods excluding food and energy | 54Steady | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
Food All food | 62Cooling | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | |
Groceries Food at home | 56Cooling | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 2.2% | |
Eating out Food away from home | 68Steady | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | |
Energy Fuel, gasoline and utilities | 87Heating | 16.8% | 28.6% | -19.1% | -1.2% | |
Gasoline All grades | 88Heating | 27.4% | 55.6% | -31.0% | -6.7% | |
Electricity Household electricity | 77Heating | 4.0% | 5.0% | -4.4% | 5.6% | |
New cars New vehicles | 46Cooling | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | |
Used cars Used cars and trucks | 28Heating | -2.3% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 6.0% | |
Medical care Care and medicines | 4Cooling | 1.5% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 3.5% | |
Airfares Airline fares | 98Steady | 28.9% | 30.0% | 22.4% | 1.0% | |
Clothing Apparel | 87Cooling | 3.9% | 3.1% | -1.8% | -0.2% |
How to read this page
How it’s measured. Price indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED. A measure is cooling when its pace over the last six months, annualized, runs at least half a point below its pace over the past year, and heating up when it runs above. Scores compare the yearly rate with its history since 1985; 100 is the hottest.
Sources. Economic data from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Core measures leave out food and energy, whose prices swing with weather and world markets; the Fed watches them for the underlying trend. Its 2% target is set on PCE prices.
Short-run paces are noisy, especially for energy, used cars and airfares. Shelter costs lag rents on new leases by about a year, so they turn late.
This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›