Is a recession coming?
Stocks have often fallen 20% or more around a recession, and they usually start falling before one is officially declared. No single indicator calls recessions reliably, but when several classic warning signs light up together, the odds rise.
Updated Oct 1, 2026
None of 10 warning signs lit
None of the 10 recession warning signs we track is lit. The most reliable, the yield curve, warned before 4 of the 4 recessions since 1982 with 3 false alarms. A model that reads whether the economy is already in recession put the odds at 1% in August.
Since 1970
First, how many signs were lit each month, with recessions shaded. Select a tile or any sign below for its own history against its warning line.
Ten warning signs
Lit signs first, then by their record before past recessions. Each is counted from when its data begin, so some cover fewer recessions. Select a column to sort.
| Sign | Now | Latest | Warned before recessions | False alarms | Typical warning | Past 3 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yield curve 10-year yield below the 3-month | Clear Last lit Aug 2025 | +1.05 pts | 4 of 4 | 3 | 12 months | |
Retail sales Sales after inflation below a year earlier | Clear Last lit Jan 2026 | +2.5% on a year | 3 of 3 | 4 | 4 months | |
Credit spreads Corporate bond spreads 1 point above their low of the past year | Clear Last lit May 2020 | 0.00 pts above the year’s low | 3 of 4 | 2 | At the start | |
Jobless claims 20% above their low of the past year | Clear Last lit Aug 2023 | 0% above the year’s low | 6 of 8 | 3 | 7 months | |
Building permits Down 20% or more on a year | Clear Last lit Mar 2023 | +4% on a year | 6 of 8 | 4 | 3 months | |
Factory output Industrial production below a year earlier | Clear Last lit Dec 2024 | +1.4% on a year | 6 of 8 | 5 | 7 months | |
Stock market S&P 500 20% or more below its high of the past year | Clear Last lit Sep 2022 | −0% from its high | 2 of 3 | 2 | At the start | |
Payrolls Jobs shrinking over three months | Clear Last lit Feb 2026 | +51K a month | 4 of 8 | 1 | At the start | |
Sahm rule Unemployment 0.5 points above its recent low | Clear Last lit Sep 2024 | 0.00 pts | 2 of 8 | 2 | 10 months | |
Real incomes Income after inflation, excluding government payments, below a year earlier | Clear Last lit Nov 2022 | +0.8% on a year | 2 of 8 | 3 | 9 months |
How to read this page
How it’s measured. Ten classic warning signs from FRED and the S&P 500, each with a fixed rule. A sign warned before a recession if it was lit at any point in the twelve months before the recession began; a false alarm is a sign that lit outside a recession with none starting in the next twelve months. Recession dates are the official NBER ones.
Sources. Daily prices from Financial Modeling Prep; economic data from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Some signs lead and some only confirm: the yield curve and building permits tend to turn a year or more ahead, while payrolls and factory output often turn as a recession starts. The recession-odds model, from Chauvet and Piger via FRED, measures whether one has already begun.
Recessions are rare, eight since 1970, so every track record here rests on a handful of cases. Treat the signs as a weight of evidence, not a forecast.
This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›