What will the Fed do next?
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate sets the cost of money for everyone, from mortgages to company loans, and moves the value investors put on future profits. Markets move on what they expect the Fed to do, so the gap between expectations and the Fed’s next step is what matters.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Markets expect hikes
The Fed raised its target by a quarter point on Sep 16, 2026, to 3.75–4.00%. Two-year Treasury yields are 0.87 points above the fed funds rate, a sign that markets expect rates to rise over the next two years. The next decision is on Oct 28, 2026; three-month Treasury bills point to a hike soon.
Over time
Select any gauge. Score compares the reading with its history since 1990; Value is the reading itself, with recessions shaded.
Fed decisions since 2022
Every scheduled meeting, newest first, with the next ones on top. The S&P 500 columns show its change on the day and over the following month. Select a column to sort.
| Decision day | Decision | Change | Target after | 2-year yield | S&P 500 that day | S&P 500 next month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2027 | Upcoming | – | – | – | – | – |
| Dec 9, 2026 | Upcoming | – | – | – | – | – |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Next Bills point to a hike | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Hike | +0.25 pts | 3.75–4.00% | 4.74% | −0.4% | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Hold | 0 pts | 3.50–3.75% | 4.22% | −1.5% | +5.7% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Hold | 0 pts | 3.50–3.75% | 4.20% | −1.2% | +0.2% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Hold | 0 pts | 3.50–3.75% | 3.92% | 0% | +6.3% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Hold | 0 pts | 3.50–3.75% | 3.76% | −1.4% | +7.4% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Hold | 0 pts | 3.50–3.75% | 3.56% | 0% | −1.4% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Cut | −0.25 pts | 3.50–3.75% | 3.54% | +0.7% | +1.1% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Cut | −0.25 pts | 3.75–4.00% | 3.59% | 0% | −0.6% |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Cut | −0.25 pts | 4.00–4.25% | 3.52% | −0.1% | +0.2% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Hold | 0 pts | 4.25–4.50% | 3.94% | −0.1% | +2.3% |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Hold | 0 pts | 4.25–4.50% | 3.94% | 0% | +5.2% |
| May 7, 2025 | Hold | 0 pts | 4.25–4.50% | 3.78% | +0.4% | +6.8% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Hold | 0 pts | 4.25–4.50% | 3.99% | +1.1% | −7.2% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Hold | 0 pts | 4.25–4.50% | 4.21% | −0.4% | −1.3% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Cut | −0.25 pts | 4.25–4.50% | 4.35% | −3.0% | +3.4% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Cut | −0.25 pts | 4.50–4.75% | 4.21% | +0.8% | +1.5% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Cut | −0.50 pts | 4.75–5.00% | 3.61% | −0.3% | +3.7% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 4.29% | +1.6% | +1.4% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 4.75% | +0.8% | +3.7% |
| May 1, 2024 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 4.96% | −0.3% | +5.4% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 4.59% | +0.9% | −4.9% |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 4.27% | −1.6% | +6.2% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 4.46% | +1.4% | +0.9% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 4.95% | +1.1% | +8.6% |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 5.12% | −0.9% | −2.8% |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Hike | +0.25 pts | 5.25–5.50% | 4.82% | 0% | −4.1% |
| Jun 14, 2023 | Hold | 0 pts | 5.00–5.25% | 4.74% | +0.1% | +3.1% |
| May 3, 2023 | Hike | +0.25 pts | 5.00–5.25% | 3.89% | −0.7% | +4.9% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | Hike | +0.25 pts | 4.75–5.00% | 3.96% | −1.7% | +5.1% |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Hike | +0.25 pts | 4.50–4.75% | 4.09% | +1.1% | −1.6% |
| Dec 14, 2022 | Hike | +0.50 pts | 4.25–4.50% | 4.23% | −0.6% | −0.4% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | Hike | +0.75 pts | 3.75–4.00% | 4.61% | −2.5% | +8.5% |
| Sep 21, 2022 | Hike | +0.75 pts | 3.00–3.25% | 4.02% | −1.7% | −3.2% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Hike | +0.75 pts | 2.25–2.50% | 2.96% | +2.6% | +4.6% |
| Jun 15, 2022 | Hike | +0.75 pts | 1.50–1.75% | 3.20% | +1.4% | +0.7% |
| May 4, 2022 | Hike | +0.50 pts | 0.75–1.00% | 2.66% | +3.0% | −4.3% |
| Mar 16, 2022 | Hike | +0.25 pts | 0.25–0.50% | 1.95% | +2.2% | +0.5% |
| Jan 26, 2022 | Hold | 0 pts | 0.00–0.25% | 1.13% | −0.3% | +1.0% |
How to read this page
How it’s measured. The fed funds target and effective rate, Treasury yields, core PCE inflation and the Fed’s balance sheet from FRED. Expectations are read from the gap between the 2-year Treasury yield and the fed funds rate, and from three-month Treasury bills for the meetings just ahead. Scores compare each reading with its history since 1990.
Sources. Economic data from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects where investors expect the fed funds rate to average over the next two years, plus a small premium for lending longer. A gap of more than a quarter point is read as a lean toward hikes or cuts; it is a rougher guide than the futures prices professional traders use.
The real rate is the fed funds rate minus core PCE inflation over the past year. Above about 1% is usually considered restrictive, below zero easy.
Decisions are announced at 2 pm Eastern on the second day of each meeting.
This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›