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Who beat, and did it stick?

Most companies beat their estimates, so a beat alone says little. What matters is whether the stock kept the gain once the news settled, because a move that holds tells you the result changed what investors think the business is worth.

Updated Jun 30, 2026

50
% held

Mixed

In Q2 2026, 87% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates. Beats rose a median +0.4% the next day, and 50% of them kept climbing over the following month.

Beat rate 87%Misses: median −5.2% over the month4 seasons tracked
Share of beats that held, by season
Beat and kept risingSMCISupermicro · reported May 590BeatSurprise +36%. Next day −0.3%, next month +69.8%.
Beat and kept risingFTNTFortinet · reported May 689BeatSurprise +32%. Next day flat, next month +66.4%.

What happens after the report

The average path of a stock against the S&P 500, from five days before the report to a month after. Select any company to see its own path.

After a big beat vs after a miss
Big beats +0.9% vs the S&P a month later; misses −10.2%
-10%-5%0%-5Report+5+10+15+20
Big beats (top fifth of surprises)MissesTrading days from the report

The biggest surprises

The 60 largest beats and misses of Q2 2026. Surprise ranks each result against every reporter that season. Select a column to sort.

CompanyReportedSurpriseNext dayNext monthDid it stick?Path vs S&P

How to read this page

How it’s measured. The Q2 2026 reporting season: 496 S&P 500 companies, with each stock’s next-day move and its move over the next month.

Sources. Daily prices and analysts’ estimates and ratings from Financial Modeling Prep.

Surprise is the reported earnings per share against the average analyst estimate. Very small estimates make the percentage huge, so the score ranks surprises instead of using the raw figure.

In our research the drift after a big surprise is real but modest. It describes how results have been received; it is not a forecast for any one stock.

This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›

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