What returns should stocks deliver over the next decade?
The price paid for a market’s earnings has been the best single guide to its returns over the following decade, though a poor guide to the next year. It helps set realistic expectations for long-term savings.
Updated Sep 1, 2026
History points to low returns
The S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted P/E, or CAPE, is 40.6, higher than in 99% of months since 1881 and close to the dot-com peak of 44.2. When the CAPE started at 30 and over, the following ten years returned −1.0% a year after inflation on average, from −5.9% to 4.5%. A simple model based on the earnings yield puts the next decade near 2.8% a year after inflation, give or take 4 points, against 2.9% guaranteed on inflation-protected Treasuries.
Since 1881
First, the earnings yield against what the next decade delivered. Select a tile for the CAPE itself, returns by starting level, or stocks against bonds.
What followed each starting level
Every month from 1871 to 2016, grouped by its CAPE, with the yearly return after inflation over the next ten years. Select a column to sort.
| Starting CAPE | Now | Average | Worst | Best | Beat inflation | Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPE under 10 229 months | – | +11.3% | +1.8% | +20.0% | 100% | 229 |
CAPE 10 to 15 461 months | – | +7.6% | −4.2% | +17.6% | 90% | 461 |
CAPE 15 to 20 514 months | – | +6.0% | −4.6% | +16.1% | 91% | 514 |
CAPE 20 to 25 260 months | – | +4.6% | −4.0% | +14.2% | 76% | 260 |
CAPE 25 to 30 108 months | – | +5.8% | −1.2% | +11.8% | 95% | 108 |
CAPE 30 and over Today’s level | Today | −1.0% | −5.9% | +4.5% | 40% | 57 |
How to read this page
How it’s measured. Robert Shiller’s monthly data since 1871. CAPE is the S&P 500’s price divided by ten years of average earnings, both after inflation. Returns include dividends and are after inflation. The model regresses each month’s next ten-year return on its earnings yield (1 ÷ CAPE).
Sources. Robert Shiller’s long-run market data.
Ten-year periods overlap, so the 1,700 months here contain only about fifteen independent decades. Accounting changes, buybacks and higher profit margins may have lifted the CAPE’s normal level, which is why it has stayed above its long-run median for most of the past 30 years.
This describes history, not a forecast or advice. The CAPE says little about the next year: markets can stay expensive, or cheap, for a long time.
This page is information, not investment advice. About our data and methods ›