Top Opportunities

Ranked by Composite Probability & Risk/Reward. Top 10 are Buys.

Rank Ticker Price Score Probability Momentum Stop Loss News Factors (Hist / Regime / Opt)
#1 WDC Western $270.57 0.923 79.1% +126.5%
$216.46
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 79.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#2 MU Micron $418.01 0.921 66.0% +135.5%
$334.41
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 66.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#3 WBD Warner $29.15 0.801 58.1% +65.4%
$26.18
(-10.2%)
neu
H: 58.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#4 LRCX Lam $244.25 0.787 62.1% +79.9%
$195.4
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 62.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#5 AMAT Applied $377.93 0.755 53.8% +77.8%
$302.34
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 53.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#6 STX Seagate $396.02 0.75 66.4% +78.1%
$316.82
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 66.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#7 ASML ASML $1497.8 0.73 53.0% +57.3%
$1198.24
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 53.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#8 CAT Caterpillar, $768.23 0.715 56.5% +47.3%
$614.58
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 56.5% R: None% O: N/A%
#9 ADI Analog $356.09 0.668 47.8% +35.7%
$296.08
(-16.9%)
neu
H: 47.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#10 GOOGL Alphabet $310.9 0.664 53.8% +19.7%
$269.72
(-13.2%)
neu
H: 53.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#11 GOOG Alphabet $310.92 0.662 53.4% +19.5%
$270.31
(-13.1%)
neu
H: 53.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#12 FDX FedEx $386.56 0.661 39.9% +44.9%
$323.03
(-16.4%)
neu
H: 39.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#13 MNST Monster $85.54 0.649 47.4% +21.9%
$75.72
(-11.5%)
neu
H: 47.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#14 MPWR Monolithic $1213.67 0.643 51.4% +32.6%
$970.94
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 51.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#15 LMT Lockheed $664.43 0.641 40.7% +35.7%
$555.41
(-16.4%)
neu
H: 40.7% R: None% O: N/A%
#16 JNJ Johnson $246.28 0.637 43.1% +23.7%
$220.95
(-10.3%)
neu
H: 43.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#17 ROST Ross $200.55 0.63 43.5% +20.4%
$182.31
(-9.1%)
neu
H: 43.5% R: None% O: N/A%
#18 MRK Merck $123.93 0.624 38.3% +29.4%
$106.76
(-13.9%)
neu
H: 38.3% R: None% O: N/A%
#19 KLAC KLA $1506.65 0.62 50.2% +39.4%
$1205.32
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 50.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#20 RTX RTX $198.46 0.62 45.8% +16.0%
$170.58
(-14.0%)
neu
H: 45.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#21 CSX CSX $42.47 0.616 39.9% +21.9%
$37.1
(-12.7%)
neu
H: 39.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#22 INTC Intel $46.12 0.614 53.4% +47.1%
$36.9
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 53.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#23 GE GE $345.64 0.595 41.5% +21.8%
$276.51
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 41.5% R: None% O: N/A%
#24 GS Goldman $902.27 0.594 45.1% +12.8%
$733.87
(-18.7%)
neu
H: 45.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#25 GM General $81.29 0.593 43.5% +20.7%
$65.03
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 43.5% R: None% O: N/A%
#26 MCHP Microchip $75.93 0.593 43.9% +19.0%
$60.74
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 43.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#27 FER Ferrovial $72.98 0.59 35.6% +19.9%
$62.93
(-13.8%)
neu
H: 35.6% R: None% O: N/A%
#28 BKR Baker $64.72 0.585 32.8% +31.5%
$51.78
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 32.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#29 USD ProShares $58.97 0.584 51.0% +22.5%
$47.18
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 51.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#30 TXN Texas $213.35 0.58 44.7% +12.8%
$170.68
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 44.7% R: None% O: N/A%
#31 USB U.S. $55.03 0.579 40.3% +9.3%
$46.84
(-14.9%)
neu
H: 40.3% R: None% O: N/A%
#32 PM Philip $187 0.576 36.4% +12.3%
$162.34
(-13.2%)
neu
H: 36.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#33 AMGN Amgen $382.87 0.571 36.4% +19.1%
$306.89
(-19.8%)
neu
H: 36.4% R: None% O: N/A%
#34 BMY Bristol-Myers $61.6 0.571 28.1% +25.1%
$52.69
(-14.5%)
neu
H: 28.1% R: None% O: N/A%
#35 GILD Gilead $147.64 0.564 35.2% +17.8%
$118.67
(-19.6%)
neu
H: 35.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#36 NEE NextEra $95.68 0.564 28.5% +18.1%
$84.76
(-11.4%)
neu
H: 28.5% R: None% O: N/A%
#37 INSM Insmed $158.62 0.563 46.2% +3.7%
$126.9
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 46.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#38 AVGO Broadcom $325.49 0.562 46.6% +2.8%
$260.39
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 46.6% R: None% O: N/A%
#39 UPS United $115.37 0.562 29.2% +20.7%
$97.74
(-15.3%)
neu
H: 29.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#40 WMT Walmart $126.75 0.562 31.2% +20.4%
$104.77
(-17.3%)
neu
H: 31.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#41 XOM Exxon $149.26 0.561 28.9% +23.7%
$123.39
(-17.3%)
neu
H: 28.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#42 PCAR PACCAR $126.25 0.56 29.6% +17.8%
$108.62
(-14.0%)
neu
H: 29.6% R: None% O: N/A%
#43 REGN Regeneron $772.19 0.56 32.8% +14.6%
$652.88
(-15.5%)
neu
H: 32.8% R: None% O: N/A%
#44 BA Boeing $233.39 0.557 34.0% +8.7%
$202.37
(-13.3%)
neu
H: 34.0% R: None% O: N/A%
#45 C Citigroup, $109.56 0.555 41.9% +7.9%
$87.65
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 41.9% R: None% O: N/A%
#46 EA Electronic $201 0.554 33.2% +6.3%
$190.27
(-5.3%)
neu
H: 33.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#47 MS Morgan $168.79 0.553 40.7% +5.9%
$135.03
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 40.7% R: None% O: N/A%
#48 AAPL Apple $272.14 0.552 35.2% +9.6%
$226.26
(-16.9%)
neu
H: 35.2% R: None% O: N/A%
#49 MAR Marriott $343.15 0.55 31.6% +17.2%
$277.89
(-19.0%)
neu
H: 31.6% R: None% O: N/A%
#50 LLY Eli $1042.15 0.548 37.2% +19.3%
$833.72
(-20.0%)
neu
H: 37.2% R: None% O: N/A%

Score Logic

  • 40% Probability: Weighted avg of Hist, Parametric, Regime & Options models.
  • 25% Momentum: Trend strength across 5, 21, 63, and 126-day lookbacks.
  • 15% Volatility: Penalty for high annualized vol; preference for stability.
  • 20% Quality & RS: Sector strength and fundamental stability factors.

Risk Rules

  • Dynamic Stops: Set at roughly 2x Monthly Volatility (5-20% range).
  • Liquidity Filter: Only S&P 100/Nasdaq 100 large caps to avoid slippage.
  • Regime Check: Probability weights adjust based on VIX (Fear Index) levels.

Execution

  • Rotation: Rebalance monthly. Replace if rank drops below Top 20.
  • Allocation: Equal weight top picks or Kelly Criterion sizing based on Probability.
  • Exit: Hit Stop Loss OR Rank drops significantly at month-end.

Technical Glossary

Composite Prob

A "super-model" combining basic historical stats, normal distribution curves, volatility-regime conditional probabilities, and options market implied odds.

Regime Cond.

"What usually happens to this stock when the VIX is at this level?" Filters out strategies that fail in high-volatility environments.

Options Implied

Extracts the market's forward-looking probability of profit from Call Option prices. "Smart money" positioning.

Momentum Score

Pure relative strength. How fast is this moving compared to itself (Time-Series) and the market (Cross-Sectional) over 1-6 months.

Strategy Transparency

Strengths

  • Multi-Factor Robustness: Doesn't rely on just one signal (like simple RSI). Blends math, price, and fear.
  • Regime Aware: The only strategy that effectively says "Sit out" or "Change expectations" when VIX spikes.
  • Forward Looking: Incorporates Options market data which often leads price action.

Weaknesses

  • Lag: As a monthly strategy, it is slow to react to sudden mid-month flash crashes.
  • Data Limits: Options data for some tickers may be illiquid, reducing the accuracy of that specific factor.
  • Complexity: Harder to manually audit than a simple "Buy if Price > SMA200" rule.